The extrapolation of votes from one election to another must be analyzed with great caution because citizens do not necessarily vote in the same municipal key as regional or nationalbut if the elections of this 13F in Castilla y León had been general, Syria Now! would repeat the feat of Teruel Exists entering the Congress of Deputies with a seat as a representative of the so-called Empty Spain. The group of voters headed by Ángel Ceña has been the most voted in Soria with more than 42% of the ballots and has obtained three of the five attorneys of the Courts -the other two have been obtained by the PP and the PSOE-. With the same result of this Sunday in general, the two seats that Soria elects to Congress would have gone to Soria. Now! and the PP.
The nine provinces of Castilla y León elect a total of 31 deputies out of the 350 of the Upper House. In the November 2019 elections, the Popular Party won 13; the PSOE 12; and Vox 6. If the data from the regional elections this Sunday are extrapolated to a general election, the PP would drop to 11, the PSOE to 10, Vox would achieve two more until they reach 8 and they would enter the Soria Congress Now! and the regionalist Union of the Leonese People party.
The rest of the candidacies of the Emptied Spain that were presented by Burgos, Palencia, Salamanca and Valladolid nor have they achieved representation in the Cortes of Castilla y León nor would it achieve, therefore, representation in Congress. The regionalist candidacy Por Ávila -split from the Popular Party- has achieved a seat in the autonomous Parliament but by applying the D’Hondt Law for a hypothetical distribution of seats in the Lower House it would have been left out.
The Two seats that the Popular Party would lose in Congress would be won by Vox for Burgos and Palencia; The two that the PSOE would no longer have would be taken by Soria. Now! in Soria and UPL in León. In the rest of the provinces -Ávila, Salamanca, Segovia, Valladolid and Zamora- the distribution would be exactly the same as in the November 2019 elections.
They would not enter Congress -as they did not do in 2019- neither United We Can nor Citizensparties that have achieved a seat in Parliament for the province of Valladolid.
Syria Now! in the footsteps of Teruel Exists
Syria Now! has achieved this Sunday more votes than the Popular Party and the PSOE together in the homonymous province. It has achieved more than 42% of the votes (18,390) compared to 24% for the Popular Party (10,364) and 18% for the PSOE (7,800). With 2,339 more ballots -calculation made with 95.64% of the vote counted- this group of voters would have taken the two deputies to Congress for this province if instead of voting regionally, they had voted regionally.
Syria Now! It has won the elections in the capital of the province, with more than half of the votes, and has also established itself as the force with the most votes in another 92 municipalities. [Mapas y gráficos para entender los resultados de las elecciones en Castilla y León]
Teruel Exists, one of the surprises of the November 2019 elections, was the most voted force in this Aragonese province in the last general elections with more than 19,700 votes and 26.6% of the ballots, while the PSOE and the PP achieved 25.5% and 23.6%, respectively. Each one of these three formations entered with a deputy to the Congress since in this province three representatives are elected.
The Soria’s candidate Now! to the Junta de Castilla y León Ángel Ceña announced in an interview on RNE that, although they had already raised it, the results of this Sunday encourage them to take the step of presenting themselves to the general elections when they are held, in principle, at the end of 2023.
Worst historical result for non-regional parties in Soria
The state parties -among which are the PP and PSOE, but also the rest of the formations that are presented at the national level- have obtained this 13F their worst result in regional elections by not even reaching 57% of the votes. In 2019, they exceeded 90% while 8% was achieved by the Soriano People’s Platform (PPSO), a split from the Popular Party.
UPL has never managed to enter Congress
Union of the Leonese People has achieved this Sunday three attorneys with 21.31% of the votes. He only got three attorneys again in the 1999 regional elections. With the same distribution of ballots as this 13F, the regionalist party would enter Congress taking over one of the four deputies that the province chooses today. The other three would be for the PSOE, PP and Vox.
But nevertheless, what has happened with the UPL over the last decades shows that the vote in regional elections does not have to correspond to that of general elections. In the autonomous elections of 1999 he also won three prosecutors with 18.7% of the votes. If the proportion of the vote had been maintained in the general elections of the year 2000, it should have entered Congress seizing one of the five deputies that then distributed the province of León, but in these last elections it fell to 13.35% of the support and it was the PP that was left with three and the PSOE with two.
The same thing happened in the 2004 and 2008 generals. If UPL had repeated the same result that it achieved in the regional elections of 2003 and 2007, respectively, it would have had to enter Congressbut in those two elections it was the PSOE that was left with three deputies and the PP with two.