this is how the 13F polls go

A few hours before the first debate is held between the candidates for the elections in Castilla y León on February 13, the polls place almost unanimously to the PP as the winning party. However, the good result would not be enough to govern alone and if in 2019 he had Citizens to form his Government, now the sum in the right-wing block would only come out with Vox. For its part, the PSOE would remain as the second force and without options to add to the left except in the scenario predicted by the CIS.

Although in recent weeks there has been no growth, the list of the current Chairman of the Board, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, would recover the role he lost in the previous elections and would take 35.4% of the votes, according to the average prepared by DatosRTVE from the polls published in recent weeks. And the PSOE, the party with the most votes in the 2019 elections, would now be the second force with less than 30% of the votes.

Among the polls of recent weeks, only the CIS changes the order of the parties and places the list of the PSOE candidate, Luis Tudanca, in first place, contradicting the rest of the polls and lowering the PP average by around five points.

Since the call for these early elections, published in the BOE on December 20, the trend of the two major parties has been downward. However, Both Vox and United We Can have experienced a slight increase in the last weeks. Both parties have reversed their roles with respect to 2019, so that now it would be Vox who would be in third position, with 15% of the votes, which it even exceeds in some polls. United We Can, behind Vox in all the polls, would be fourth with 7.3% of the votes according to the average.

Ciudadanos, stable in recent weeks, seems doomed to repeat the debacles of the last regional elections. The candidacy of Francisco Igea, key to forming a Government together with the PP after the previous elections, would only get 4.6% of the votes in this appointment, although some polls place it below 3%.

And among the regionalist parties, the estimated vote does not exceed 5% in general in any case, although the trend has been slightly upward in recent weeks and several surveys estimate that several of them could exceed the 3% threshold in the district where they are presented, necessary to enter the distribution of seats. At the moment, the candidacy of the Empty Spain has good prospects at the regional level -the average gives it 2.1% of the votes, with an upward trend that the Soria ¡Ya! platform has also experienced-, although its seat in the Courts is not guaranteed.

The PP would add with Vox for the absolute majority

The last electoral appointment in Castilla y León, in May 2019, placed the PSOE as the most voted party, the PP in second place and Ciudadanos as the third force. Four other parties -Podemos-Equo, Unión por el Pueblo Leonés and Por Ávila- also obtained representation in Courts that will change significantly if the result of the polls is close to what the polls predict.

Despite the good result predicted by the polls for Mañueco’s candidacy, the PP could not govern alone after February 13. The translation to seats would suppose a considerable improvement for the PP -it would go from 29 seats to 35, according to the average of the seats assigned in the last survey of the main polling houses-, but it would be far from the 41 seats necessary for the absolute majority .

Igea has reiterated that it will not support the PP leader on this occasion, but repeating the government agreement would in any case be unfeasible. Ciudadanos would barely retain one seat of the 12 it obtained in 2019, and even this is not guaranteed. The sum to govern if he would go out, instead, with Vox. Beyond the fact that both parties reached an agreement, the polls suggest that the accounts would come out: the candidacy led by Juan García-Gallardo would translate his votes into ten seats, nine more than he obtained in 2019.

In the absence of seeing if the debate moves votes to one side or the other, the PSOE would be left with 27 seats, eight fewer than it had in this legislature. And although the candidacy of United We Can improve the result it obtained with Equo in 2019, its three seats they wouldn’t do for a left sum. Not even in a hypothetical scenario of joining forces with the regionalist parties that will foreseeably obtain parliamentary representation would they come close to the 41 necessary seats.

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George Holan

George Holan is chief editor at Plainsmen Post and has articles published in many notable publications in the last decade.

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