The PP would win the elections from this sunday in Castile and Leon with a very close victory over the PSOE and I would need vox to govern, according to polls Gad3, Sigma Two and Sociometricspublished in different media at the closing of schools in the region. PP and Vox would exceed 41 seats in which the absolute majority is fixed, while the PSOE, on the other hand, would have no chance although it joined United We Can, Citizens, and the minority parties. The polls also agree on a Citizens debaclewhich in the best of cases would achieve a single seat, and in the entrance of Soria Now! with, in the best of cases, three attorneys.
The poll of GAD3 for the ABC, grants a victory for the PP by Alfonso Fernández Mañueco from between 31 and 33 seats thanks to 32.2% of the votes, a rise of 2-4 compared to the 29 that he achieved in the 2019 regional elections. the PSOEwith between 26 and 28 attorneys and 30.3% of the vote (it would lose 7-9 seats compared to 2019). Y vox would achieve a pronounced ascent and would be placed as the third force with between 11 and 13 prosecutors thanks to 15.6% of ballots, compared to the only seat it obtained in the previous elections.
Syria Now! would enter the Cortes of Castilla y León for the first time with three procurators thanks to a total of 1.8% of votes, the same ones that GAD3 grants to the Union of the Leonese People (UPL), which would grow compared to the only prosecutor who achieved in the previous elections with a total of 4.3%. Next, United We Can would get between one and three seats thanks to 6.3% of votes, compared to the two he achieved in 2019. citizens would manage to keep a single deputy with 3.8% of the votes, which would mean the loss of 11 seats. And the last deputy would be for Ávilawith 0.9% of the votes in total.
With these results, PP and Vox would achieve between 42 and 46 parliamentarians, enough to govern, while the PSOE with Cs and the rest of the minority parties would remain at a maximum of 39 attorneys, insufficient to add a majority. The Gad3 survey has been carried out by continuous sampling by telephone carried out since the beginning of the electoral campaign and 5,500 voters have participated in the sample.
The poll of Sigma Two for The world matches awarding a victory to the PP from among 30 and 32 seats with 32.4% of the votes, followed by PSOEwhich remains as the second force with 28-30 seats thanks to 31.2% of votes. vox would go up to third force with a fork of 10-12 seats thanks to 14.7% of the votes. UPL would manage to climb three procurators (4.4% of votes), the same that would obtain Syria Now! with 3.4% of votes. United We can get 2-3 attorneys with 7.1% of votes. Citizens would keep one with 4.9% of the votes and, finally, For Ávila he would keep his seat 0.8% of votes throughout Castilla y León.
With this estimate, PP and Vox could achieve a very tight majority to govern, since they would add between 40 (to one of the absolute majority) and 44 seats. In this poll, the PSOE would have a minimal opportunity to add an absolute majority with United We Can, Citizens and the rest of the minority parties, since it would add between 28 and 41 seats with all of them.
The latest poll, Sociometric for The Spanishoffers a win similar to PP with between 30 and 33 seats thanks to 33% of the votes, followed by PSOE with 26-28 and 28.3% of the votes, Vox with 11-13 (15.1%), United we can with 3 (7.5%), UPL with 2-3 (3.3%), Syria Now! with 2 (1.4%), Spain Empty with 1 seat for Burgos and for Ávila with 1 (0.9%). In this case, the sum between PP and Vox would give the government to Alfonso Fernández Mañueco.