The Catalan election results They offer two possible scenarios for a pact: either a government with a pro-independence sign or a left-wing coalition: both options have ERC as a common denominator, so they will have to choose allies.
The independence movement has once again revalidated its absolute majority, but relations between ERC, JxCat and the CUP are not going through their best moment and it will not be easy to reach an agreement, so if this option fails, a possibility will open to explore a coalition A left-wing alternative, also difficult to articulate, since the pro-independence forces pledged in writing not to agree with the PSC.
1. ERC + JXCAT
One possibility is that ERC and JxCat repeat the coalition, as in the last legislature, although with the presidency, for the first time since the times of the Second Republic, in the hands of the Republicans, specifically Pere Aragonès.
For this coalition – shaken by numerous clashes between the two partners in recent years – to re-form, it will be necessary for the CUP, with its decisive votes, to give external support to the investiture, and that will not be easy, since the anti-capitalists demand a much more ambitious roadmap to continue the process.
2. ERC + JXCAT + CUP
Another option would be for ERC and JxCat to join the CUP within the Government, which would represent the first time that the anti-capitalists assume government responsibilities.
The head of the CUP list in these elections, Dolors Sabater, left the door open to this scenario during the pre-campaign, but the political council of the formation amended the strategy and warned that it would only endorse entering the Government if JxCat and ERC gave a 180 degree turn in their policies.
3. ERC + COMMON
If an investiture agreement between the three pro-independence formations does not come together, an alternative would be a bipartisan government between ERC and En Comú Podem, although they would necessarily need the external votes of the PSC.
It is an unlikely scenario, because the socialist candidate, Salvador Illa, has made it clear in the campaign that he will not make a pro-independence president of the Generalitat, although that option would avoid a fully secessionist executive conditioned by the CUP.
4. PSC + ERC + COMMON
It would be the reissue of the tripartite scheme presided over in the first decade of the 21st century by Pasqual Maragall (2003-2006) and José Montilla (2006-2010).
This formula, now, is highly unlikely due to the crossed vetoes: ERC has signed a document together with the rest of the pro-independence formations in which it undertakes not to agree the Government with the PSC, while Illa is committed to forming a coalition with the commons and he will not govern with any party that prioritizes independence.
5. ERC + JXCAT + CUP + COMMON
It is the way of the “broad government” in favor of self-determination and amnesty for the imprisoned independence leaders that Aragonès defends.
But the ERC candidate’s proposal has no viability, since the commons and JxCat do not want to share Govern.
6. ELECTORAL REPETITION
If the CUP does not reach an agreement with ERC and JxCat and, on the other hand, the mutual vetoes of Republicans and Socialists frustrate a leftist alternative, the possibility of an electoral repetition in Catalonia will be opened.
If the candidate for the investiture does not manage to be elected, a period of two months would be activated – counting from the first failed vote, which could be March 26 if the terms are exhausted -, time in which there could be more debates of investment.
At the end of those two months – if all the deadlines had previously been exhausted, it would be on May 26 – without having been able to unblock the investiture, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and new elections would be called in Catalonia, to be held after 54 days, that is, approximately mid-July.
George Holan is chief editor at Plainsmen Post and has articles published in many notable publications in the last decade.