The stable and dry weather of mid-November, known as the summer of San Martín and which has reigned this week in a large part of the Peninsula, retires. The change will begin at the weekend, when an area of low pressures centered in the southwest will cause “an increase in cloudiness, with irregularly distributed rainfall, although more abundant in the south and east,” advances Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). The temperatures will still be the usual ones for the time. But the drastic change will come as of Monday due to “the entry of a cold air mass and the formation of a cold storm” isolated and centered on the Peninsula, which will translate into a sharp, marked and generalized drop in temperatures. , especially the daytime ones, abundant rains and snowfalls at relatively low elevations, up to 800 meters, in large areas of the Peninsula. “The atmosphere will be fully wintery from Monday,” sums up the meteorologist. However, the uncertainty is still high, so it is not possible to determine exactly where it will rain or snow more. This is the prediction day by day:
This Friday the showers that are going to fall in the afternoon in the Gulf of Cádiz, the Strait area, Almería, Murcia and the Valencian Community stand out. On the coast of the latter region they can be “of strong intensity”, warns the expert. On Saturday, the presence of a storm in the southwest of the peninsula will lead to showers in the southern and eastern halves and in the Balearic Islands. “The strongest will be produced on the coast of the Valencia Community, in the surroundings of the Gulf of Cádiz and in the Strait, where 20 liters per square meter can be accumulated in just one hour.” The rains will be less likely the further north and will not reach the north of Castilla y León or the Cantabrian Sea. Due to the increase in cloud cover, there will be an increase in nighttime temperatures and a decrease in daytime temperatures. The snow level will be “still high, above 2,000 meters”, and an intense storm is expected from Levante in the Strait and Alboran, with waves of more than three meters, which will diminish as the hours go by.
On Sunday, cloudy skies in most of the Peninsula and in the Balearic Islands, with rainfall again in the southern half and in the archipelago, although this day they will extend further north. The most intense are expected in Andalusia and the Balearic Islands, where showers can go hand in hand with storms. Temperatures will drop except in the Mediterranean area, where they will rise. The level will already fall at the last minute to 900 / 1,200 meters in the northwest, 1,000 / 1,400 in the center and 1,400 / 1,800 in the Pyrenean mountain range.
As of next Monday, a dana (Isolated Depression in High Levels) will penetrate from the north, coming from high latitudes and as a result of the undulation and strangulation of the polar jet, which will evolve the following days into a cold storm, isolated from the general circulation. . At low levels there will be the entry of a very cold air mass of polar origin that will settle for several days in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.
The result will be, in the words of Del Campo, “a period of cold and unstable weather, with snow precipitations in the mountains that cannot be ruled out in high areas of the plateau and in central moorlands.” The rains “may affect almost any point on the Peninsula.” However, it is still not very clear the location that the center of the storm will end up having, fundamental data to specify in which areas it will rain or snow more. “In principle, the most abundant rainfall could occur in the Cantabrian Sea, the Strait and the Balearic Islands, although they are not ruled out in points in the center and northeast of the peninsula”, clarifies the spokesperson for Aemet, who adds that in some cases they can be accompanied by storms.
Temperatures will drop in general and the decrease will be marked, of more than six degrees compared to the previous day, in the central area. The daytime values will be within five degrees in large areas, clearly lower than usual at this time. “The environment will be cold, winter, a sensation that will be increased by the wind, which will blow strongly in mountain areas,” summarizes the meteorologist.
Will it snow in Madrid?
The elevation will be 800 / 1,200 meters in the northwest and center, with possible snowfall in capitals such as Burgos, Soria and León, and will be a little higher, 1,300 / 1,500, in the Pyrenees. The probabilities that it snows in the Madrid capital “are quite low” on Monday and Tuesday, Del Campo responds. “In case of occurrence, it would be four flakes during the night of Monday and early Tuesday, although the probability is less than 20%”, he explains, to add that the probability is “quite high” in the mountains of Madrid, from 800 / 1,000 meters.
The situation will continue the same on Tuesday and Wednesday, within a “wide margin of uncertainty”, with rains in large areas – more likely and abundant in the extreme north and eastern half and weaker and sometimes in the western one -, cold and snow 800 / 1,200 meters in general and 1,200 / 1,400 in the northern third. “The heaviest snowfalls will be in mountain areas, but it cannot be ruled out that it snows on the plateau and in the center,” Del Campo warns.
The maximum temperatures will be between 5 and 10 degrees below the average for this time, especially in the center and east, with frosts in the interior, although they will not be too intense and will occur mainly in the eastern part of the two plateaus and mountain areas.
And the rest of the week? As of Thursday, the uncertainty increases a lot, but, according to Aemet’s note, “it is likely that the storm will move away towards the east and that it will be replaced by another from the north, so that the winter weather will be maintained at least until the end of the week ”.
“The probability that this year there will be another ‘Filomena’ is 1%”
For more than a month, the prediction has spread like wildfire in all WhatsApp conversations and groups that this year there will be another Philomena, which is attributed to a supposed expert, capable of specifying, which octopus Paul of the time, which will be specifically on January 24. What is true in the forecast? Nothing at all. Such is the strength of the hoax, that Aemet has denied it in the video of his seasonal prediction, in which Del Campo explains that between now and the end of January 2022 it is most likely that temperatures will be higher than normal, in especially in the Mediterranean regions, while there is no clear trend in terms of rainfall.
“There are the limits of science,” assumes Del Campo, who recalls that seasonal predictions are probabilistic and adhere to these two variables. “We cannot predict an extreme episode such as a Philomena“, Underlines the meteorologist, to point out that these” extreme phenomena “are, in addition to being unpredictable, very unlikely. “It is estimated that Philomena it was unprecedented in the last century and has a return period of 100 years, so the probability of it happening again this season is very low, 1% ”. “For sure, we cannot affirm anything emphatically to the question of whether there is going to be a new Philomena this winter ”, reiterates Del Campo.
George Holan is chief editor at Plainsmen Post and has articles published in many notable publications in the last decade.