The PP would win the Andalusian elections, but slows its growth, according to a survey | Spain

The president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juan Manuel Moreno, in the regional Parliament.
The president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juan Manuel Moreno, in the regional Parliament.Joaquin Corchero (Europa Press)

The PP of Juan Manuel Moreno would win the Andalusian elections if held now, but its upward trend in recent polls stops, according to the quarterly barometer of the Andalusian Studies Center (Centra) known this Monday. The first thing that the president of the Board usually looks at every time they pass a poll is whether the right-wing forces add up to more than those that make up the left-wing bloc. And, according to the Andalusian CIS, that sum continues to be given.

The Centra, which depends on the Ministry of the Presidency, maintains that the PP could only guarantee itself an absolute majority with Vox. Ciudadanos would maintain its presence in the Andalusian Parliament, while the PSOE slows its fall compared to the last poll. The left, divided into four ballots, would not be able to gather the 55 seats necessary for an absolute majority.

The advantage of Moreno’s PP over Juan Espadas’s PSOE would stand at 10 points, five less than those of the previous barometer. The PP would be the most voted party in the Andalusian elections with 35.1% of the votes, 3.2 points less than in the previous edition, and would obtain between 44-46 seats. In the Andalusian elections of December 2018, he obtained 20.7% of the votes and 26 deputies.

Ciudadanos, a coalition partner with the PP, continues to decline. The Centra continues to give it up to 4-5 seats, a projection that other opinion companies reduce to one or none. Cs is left in this barometer 2.8 points with respect to the previous one and would obtain 5.5% of the support. The party led by the Andalusian vice president and recently elected candidate for the presidency of the Board, Juan Marín, won 18.3% of the votes and 21 seats three years ago. Andalusia is the only community where they still govern after the failed motion of censure in Murcia, their disappearance in the Madrid Assembly and now their expulsion from the Government of Castilla-León. In the PP the joint alliance with Cs does not arise, unless it is a full-fledged absorption of the party that Albert Rivera founded.

According to Centra, Moreno could only obtain an absolute majority with Vox, but the far-right party also falls back in the electoral estimate. It would maintain the same seats as in 2018, when it was premiered in a Spanish parliament with 12 deputies and almost 11% of the vote. The barometer gives him 10.9% of the votes, almost two points less than in the previous edition, and between 12-13 minutes.

Socialists halt their fall

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The official poll gives the PSOE two points more than three months ago (it would go from 23.1% to 25.1%) and it would obtain between 31-33 seats. The PSOE won the last Andalusian elections, but went into opposition for the first time since 1982 after the alliance of PP, Cs and Vox. In 2018, the Socialists obtained 27.9% of the votes and 33 seats.

The Espadas formation would not add to the three formations that are outlined to its left, after the implosion of the Adelante Andalucía coalition. This brand won a total of 17 seats and 16.4% of the votes in 2018. According to the Centra, Unidas Podemos would obtain 10.8% and between 11-12 seats. Adelante Andalucía, the formation led by the leader of Anticapitalistas, Teresa Rodríguez, would obtain 4.4% and 2-3 seats. And Andalusians Levantaos, 2.6% and one seat, a surprising figure because this coalition (made up of Más País, Andalucía por Sí and Iniciativa del Pueblo Andaluz) was presented on the night of December 2, when the barometer surveys.

Only the president and vice president of the Board receive approval from the respondents. Moreno is the best known Andalusian politician (92.3%) and the best valued (6.36), three tenths less than the previous poll. They are followed by Juan Marín (Cs), 5.34; Esperanza Gómez (Andalusians Get up),, 4.74; Juan Espadas (PSOE), 4.58; Macarena Olona (Vox), 4.56; Martina Velarde (United We Can), 4.38; Teresa Rodríguez (Forward), 4.14; and Manuel Gavira (Vox), 4.12.

Lack of work continues to be the main problem for 51.7% of those interviewed, followed at a distance by covid (7.9%) and health (2.3%). The survey was conducted between November 24 and December 13, and consists of 3,600 interviews with a margin of error of 1.6%.

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George Holan

George Holan is chief editor at Plainsmen Post and has articles published in many notable publications in the last decade.

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